The Path to Prescribe: From Undiagnosed Patient to Clinical Decision
The Path to Prescribe is the journey that runs from an undiagnosed patient to a clinical decision, and it is the first of three paths on which pharmaceutical value survives or is lost. It covers everything that has to happen before a prescriber can act, including the patient arriving, the condition being recognized, the evidence being available and the moment being right. Institutions tend to measure the things they already know how to see. That habit explains a good deal about why this path is the best instrumented of the three and still incomplete.
Three paths exist rather than one because they fail for entirely different reasons, sit with different functions and respond to different work. This one fails before a decision is ever made. The Path to Fulfill fails in the administrative space after it, and the Path to Adhere fails during the months when nobody is watching. Collapsing them into a single journey produces a diagram rather than a diagnosis.
The model behind all three is the move from a commercial funnel to a flywheel, which I worked through in the chapter on commercial DNA. A funnel is built to acquire and is sub-optimized for everything that follows acquisition. In pharma the written prescription sits roughly where the purchase sits in a consumer funnel, and the industry has largely organized itself to reach that point and stop.
What the Path to Prescribe actually covers
This path begins long before a brand team becomes involved, with a person who has symptoms and no name for them. It continues through primary care, referral, diagnostic workup and specialist assessment, each of which can add months to the elapsed time. It ends at the point the therapeutic value chain treats as its pivot, the clinical decision itself. Everything the commercial system does here has one purpose, which is to put the state of the art in front of that decision before it is made.
The path carries the work of several functions that rarely share a scorecard. Medical Affairs carries scientific exchange and the evidence environment a clinician actually reads. The Field Force carries the relationship and the account context that determine whether any of it lands. Marketing carries the message, the channel mix and the demand generation that brings patients into care at all. The Brand Team sits above all of it as the named owner, here and on the other two paths.
Why three paths rather than one journey
A single journey map flattens three different kinds of failure into one picture, which makes the picture useless for allocating work. Each path has its own failure mode, its own cast of parties and its own remedy. Treating them as one encourages a company to fund a general improvement effort and then wonder why so little moved.
There is a second reason, and it is the more uncomfortable one. An unnamed journey has no owner, no budget line and no place on a scorecard. That may explain why these paths survive untouched inside organizations that are otherwise exacting about cost. Naming them is less a semantic exercise than a precondition, because a name is what makes accountability assignable.
How this path fails
This path fails quietly, which is what makes it the hardest of the three to argue about in a commercial review. Patients who never arrive leave no record. Diagnoses that come late tend to appear in the data simply as diagnoses. A condition carried for years without a name is invisible to every system this industry has built.
The clinician side fails just as quietly. A specialist may hold the evidence and never meet the moment where it would have changed a decision. A guideline may be current while a habit is considerably older. Nothing on a dashboard registers a patient who was never seen, so the loss on this path is real and almost entirely unbooked.
The one path pharma genuinely industrialized
Fairness matters here more than provocation. Of the three paths, this is the only one pharma has genuinely industrialized, and it has done so across roughly four decades. Launch excellence, marketing excellence and sales excellence were each built to operate on this path, and they operate well. The instruments are strong, the talent is deep, and the practice behind them is real.
That strength is also the reason the gap is so easy to miss. Excellence concentrated in one place can read as excellence overall, particularly when the measurement system lives in the same place. A company can run a textbook launch, win share of voice, hold a strong recall position and still lose most of what its science earned. The losses occur on paths the instruments do not reach.
Where the brand team's instruments run out
The structural problem sits in a mismatch between what the brand team owns and what it can see. The brand team ostensibly owns the brand end to end, which means across all three paths. Its instruments sit almost entirely in this one, namely prescribing data, market research, message testing, share tracking and promotional response. Each of those is a capable instrument for the question it was built to answer, which is whether a prescriber can be persuaded.
None of them was built to answer whether a decision survived. A share tracker cannot report that a clinically justified prescription was rejected by a payer in February. Market research cannot report that a patient stopped at week six because a form went unanswered. Those events belong to the Path to Fulfill and the Path to Adhere, where the brand team holds accountability and very little instrumentation.
That asymmetry is why a company can be excellent on this path and still lose most of what it earns. Excellence at generating intent does not confer visibility into whether intent became therapy. The written prescription is intent rather than realized value, which is the first of the tenets I work from. Scientific value is realized when the patient accesses, starts, continues and benefits, not when the script is written.
What customer consciousness asks of this path
The best work on this path happens before a market exists. Customer consciousness in its upstream sense means reading a customer's world deeply enough that what their life is making them need becomes visible before any market has formed around it. That is a research posture rather than a forecasting exercise, and it is rarer in this industry than the sheer volume of market research would suggest.
In our practice that question sits inside the Convergence Readiness Model, which names seven conditions that tend to precede a category forming. They are persistent need, normalized burden, identity intensity, cultural readiness, self recognition, scientific unlock and ecosystem potential. Categories that look sudden from the outside often satisfy most of those conditions years in advance. The GLP-1 phenomenon is the clearest recent instance, and its signals were legible well before the market was.
Reading those conditions early is a Path to Prescribe capability, though it rarely sits where the rest of the path's instruments sit. It asks a brand team to study a life rather than a market. It also asks for patience, because the signal appears long before the revenue does. Companies able to do both tend to arrive in a category as its author rather than its fourth entrant.
How progression on this path is measured
Progression on all three paths is measured on one ladder, which is what makes them a single commercial system rather than three initiatives. The stages are Scripts Written, Filled, Therapy Started, 90-Day and Persistence. This path is accountable for the first stage and, more importantly, for the size of the population that reaches it at all. A company counting only that first stage is measuring intent and reporting it as performance.
The yield question follows from the ladder. The Realization Rate is realized value divided by earned value, and it reports what share of what the science earned actually became therapy. Customer Value at Risk is earned value multiplied by one minus that rate, which converts a shortfall into a figure a finance committee already knows how to read. Both measures span the three paths, because a shortfall can originate in diagnosis, in fulfillment or in the months after a first fill.
The ladder also changes what field intelligence is for. Field intelligence is observed rather than recalled, account specific rather than sampled, current rather than lagged, and already attached to the moment progression broke. That combination makes it the most unimpeachable and actionable intelligence in the commercial system, and it is largely uncollected. An operating blueprint for field intelligence and activation exists to turn that observation into assigned work rather than anecdote.
Read that way, field force effectiveness stops being a question about coverage and call plans. It becomes a question about how much of what the field already sees survives the trip into a decision somebody makes. Very little of the friction on this path is discovered by headquarters first. Almost all of it is seen by somebody in a parking lot outside a clinic.
Key Takeaways
- The Path to Prescribe runs from an undiagnosed patient to a clinical decision, and it is the first of three paths where earned value survives or is lost.
- It fails quietly, through patients who never arrive and diagnoses that come late, which leaves the loss real and almost entirely unbooked.
- Pharma has genuinely industrialized this path across four decades of launch, marketing and sales practice, and its instruments are strong.
- The brand team owns all three paths while its instruments sit almost entirely in this one, which is why excellence here can coexist with large losses elsewhere.
- Customer consciousness in its upstream sense reads a customer's world before any market has formed around it, which is where new categories become visible.
- Progression is measured on one stage ladder across all three paths, running from Scripts Written through Persistence.
Diagnostic Questions to Consider
- Name the function accountable for the patients in your category who never reach a diagnosis at all.
- List the instruments your brand team currently holds that report on anything occurring after a prescription is written.
- State how long a patient in your category typically carries the condition before it is named.
- Describe the signals you would have needed in order to see a converging category three years before it formed.
- Identify your current Realization Rate and which of the three paths accounts for most of the shortfall.
Closing Reflection
The Path to Prescribe is the path this industry knows how to work, and that deserves saying plainly rather than grudgingly. Four decades of launch, marketing and sales practice produced real capability, and the people who built it were not wrong about what they were building. The limitation is one of scope rather than quality.
What follows is a question about boundaries rather than about effort. The commercial funnel in pharma ends too early, at the written prescription, and prescribe, fulfill and adhere belong inside one commercial system. A company that accepts that proposition then has to extend its instruments past the point where its current ones stop, which is an uncomfortable budget conversation rather than a philosophical one.
I have rarely found an organization that lacked the will to do this. What tends to be missing is a named path, an owner who holds it whole, and a number that makes its condition visible in a quarterly review. Those three things are structural decisions, available to any company prepared to make them.
About the Author
Wayne Simmons is the founder of The Customer Excellence AGENCY and the author of The Customer Excellence Enterprise (Wiley, 2024). He is founding faculty of the MS in Customer Experience Management at Michigan State University's Broad College of Business. He led global customer excellence in Pfizer's first Chief Marketing Organization and in Bayer's Customer Powerhouse.
The Customer Excellence Agency: Advancing the Pursuit of Excellence in Service of Science.







